WB and Singerman's Bad Summer

An article in today's LA Times, shows just exactly how bad of a summer that Warner Bros. Studios is having. Pretty much everything they've put out this summer has flopped or been a "disappointment." (Hey, there's always Beerfest) In it they talk to Studio head Alan Horn who seems to be doing a bit of damage control, at least when it comes to Singerman :

"Horn declined to divulge figures, but a person familiar with the studio's internal projections said Warner's cut of the "Superman Returns" profit was expected to be $50 million to $60 million. The film cost $209 million to produce and more than $100 million to market worldwide."

Well there's yet another confirmation of Singerman's astronomical $100 million marketing budget that we've been saying for weeks. As for the "expected profit," this cost $309 million to make. Assuming it somehow makes $400 million worldwide, the Studio only sees 1/2 of that, the other 1/2 goes to the exhibitors. They've still got another $109 to cover before they're out of the red. Can they really be projecting another $220+ million in ancilliaries with the film's disappointing box office? Remember half of the profit for Singerman goes to co-financer Legendary Pictures, so for WB to see $60 million in profit, the film's got to make $120 million in profit.

Horn expects "Superman Returns" to eventually gross about $400 million worldwide, more than last year's hit "Batman Begins."

OK, so Horn says he's expecting the film to gross $400 million worldwide. My question is, where the hell is that figure coming from? It's basically a done deal the film won't cross $200 million domestically. A fair estimate has the film ending up with around $196 million. Therefor, you'd need to get over $204 million from the international box office. Currently Singerman is sitting at $155 million international. The only major territories it's set to open in are Germany, Japan, and Italy.
Using Batman Begins as some kind of gauge, we can see that it made $166 million internationally in its run. Will Singerman beat that like Horn says? Probably. Will it beat it by almost $40 million to get to $400 million worldwide? Very doubtful. In Germany, Italy, and Japan, Begins made $24.8 million. Add that to Singerman's current worldwide total, and that puts you only at $179.8 million, or $24.2 million short of the mark they'd need internationally to make it to $400 million worldwide. I can see another possible $10 MAYBE $15 million over that for Singerman based on how it's trending internationally but that's at a maximum. Our best guess? Singerman ends up around $191 million internationally, and about $388 million worldwide.

"Nonetheless, "Superman" fell at least $100 million short of his expectations.
"I thought it was a very successful movie, but I think it should have done $500 million worldwide," Horn said. "

Now let's look at the comments here. In one sentence Horn admits the film fell AT LEAST $100 MILLION SHORT of his expectations. In the very next one he says its "very successful." Umm okay Alan so what you're saying is in the best case scenario, the project is bringing in 20% less revenue than expected, but it's still somehow considered a success?? Do your shareholders feel the same way? I don't. This is reminiscient of the Iraqi Information Minister saying that the US Army was getting crushed by Iraqi forces, as Baghdad was crumbling behind him. Companies tend not to set unrealistic revenue expectations for themselves. They tend to do a bit of research on these things, and set attainable goals for themselves. Otherwise they look bad in front of their stockholders. If they miss their mark by $100 million (roughly 20% of their expected take), no one is going to consider that a success.

"We should have had perhaps a little more action to satisfy the young male crowd."

Ah! Now we're on to something here! Horn seems to recognize one of the many flaws of Singerman, though it's in a real non-committal way. But will he really do something about it? Like say, get a hold of a director who can do an action movie?? One who's initials arent "BS" perhaps? God I hope the WB lackeys that are forced to read blogs like this, pass some of this stuff along.

"Still, he's betting Warner has firmly reestablished the "Superman" franchise and is planning another installment for summer 2009."

Ugh, just when you thought we were making some kind of progress with this guy. This, ladies and gentlemen, is what they call "damage control." Horn sort of, kind of recognizes a weakness in the film, but then follows it up with the "everything is a-okay, nothing to see here" line. The truth of the matter is with Singerman still stinking up a few theaters in the US, and set to open this weekend in places abroad, Horn still has to present the movie in the best light possible, since it's still being "sold" to various publics. If he has any hope of this film hitting $400 million WW, he can't come out and say anything other than "the franchise is strong" and "sequels are coming." No one wants to support a dying franchise. We heard the same thing from Universal Studios execs when The Hulk was in theaters back in 2003. We'll find out how Horn and Co. truely feel about the financial viability of this "franchise" when it's not in theaters any longer, and they've had time to assess the actual return on investment. In the meantime, file this one under F for "Fluff."